My predictions for the next General Elections (GE13)

.
Here are my predictions of the outcome of the next General Elections (assuming it is held tomorrow). What methodology do I use? Well, I sit with a glass (besar) of teh tarik and think. Sometimes, I might have a roti kosong as well. If you are not happy with my methodology, too bad lah. Since this is my blog, I write pretty much what I like.

Before I go state by state, here is a quick summary of what advantages or disvantages both sides have. (sorry la... it is quite simplistic)

Barisan Nasional – plus points
Najib is popular
Rosmah has recently adopted a relatively low profile
Several of the NKRA initiatives showing results. A lot more focussed compared to Pak Lah’s economic corridors
Economy doing reasonably okay
Mahathir is backing Najib (remember what Darth Vader told Luke “do not under-estimate the power of the Dark Side”)
Pak Lah, Khir Toyo  and Samy Vellu are gone
The pledge to remove ISA and other repressive acts

Barisan Nasional – minus points
NFC lembu scandal
UMNO’s reputation battered
Perkasa & Utusan rhetoric spooking the non-Malays
Many unresolved/unsettled issues (TBH, Lynas, MRT, etc)
Has been slow to respond to crisis / scandals
MIC, PPP and Gerakan are weak
Several dinosaurs still hanging around

Pakatan Rakyat – plus points

Selangor and Penang are proof that Pakatan can govern well
PAS and DAP not quarreling as much as they used to
Hassan Ali gone
Many of the kataks have already jumped away
FOI (Selangor) and the recent declaration of assets (Penang) are public confidence boosters
Has been able to reach out via alternative media
DAP has cornered most of the Chinese

Pakatan Rakyat – minus points

No succession plan (who after Anwar?)
PKR’s own affair are in a mess (remember it’s own elections?)
Sodomy appeal, sex videos still hang over Anwar
Nothing has changed in Kedah or Kelantan (in fact, economically, Kedah may have regressed)
Has a Masters degree in bitching. People tend to notice.
Many oldies still hanging on (LKS, Hadi and Nik Aziz who is 300 years old now)

Ok. Now let's go through state by state.

Easy to predict

Penang – Pakatan wins, hands down. LGE doing a very good job. BN might be able to win back one or two seats.

Johor – BN wins, hands down. Despite some jostling for the MB’s position by local UMNO warlords, this UMNO’s stronghold will stay loyal to BN.

Sabah – BN wins, hands down. Although many are disgruntled with BN, the opposition is unorganized and chaotic. Nevertheless, BN could lose 5 or more state seats.

Sarawak (Parliament only). Palpatine rules here. BN will win most of the Parliamentary seats. DAP will add 1 or 2 more.

Pahang. BN wins, hand down. Najib’s state. The Lynas issue will not sway most of the voters. PKR will retain Kuantan, DAP will keep its seats but not much more gains for Pakatan.

Negeri Sembilan. BN will win and keep two-thirds majority. NS receives the spillover benefits from the Klang Valley so the economy is doing alright. As long as no major crisis erupts, it will be smooth sailing for BN.

Melaka. BN will win and keep two-thirds majority. Ali Rustam is keeping the state bustling.

Perlis. So far so good for the current state government. BN will win at least two thirds of the state seats.

Terengganu. BN will win the state but expect the battle to be close. BN will win perhaps by 4 - 5 seats.

WP Kuala Lumpur (Parliament only). Pakatan will retain most seats. However BN would perform better than previous elections. Could be 7 to Pakatan and 3 to BN.

Difficult to predict

Perak. The 2009 coup is still in many people’s mind. Zamry is nevertheless doing a good job as MB and the Nga-Ngeh twins were not exactly very popular the last time around. Close call. BN to win.

Kelantan. Despite Nik Aziz keeping Kelantan in the Stone Age, the outstation Kelantanese will vote to keep PAS in. The substantial federal investment may sway some voters and BN will gain some seats. PAS will keep Kelantan.

Kedah. Azizan has been keeping a low-profile. Several blunders over the alcohol ruling and tiffs with DAP. Economically Kedah is in the doldrums – people flock to Penang and KL for jobs. BN will win back Kedah but it will be close.

Selangor. Khalid is doing a reasonably good job despite internal politicking within PKR and brushes with the Sultan. Hassan Ali is now out of the way. Khir Toyo is still a much despised figure. Although Umno has made up some grounds, Pakatan will keep Selangor. It will be close.

In conclusion, BN will perform better in GE13 compared to GE12. Penang, Selangor and Kelantan will remain with Pakatan. Pakatan will made inroads in Sabah and Sarawak. Will BN regain two-thirds in the Parliament? Too close to tell.

Note : these are the outcomes that I predict, they are not necessarily the outcomes that I prefer.

Well folks, this is it. Just a reminder that these predictions are based on the light I saw while having the teh tarik. If you don’t like my predictions, well you can always make your own predictions (and teh tarik).

Feel free to disagree.

Related articles
The 10 politicians that I like
Which side do I belong?